Ambalal Patel Forecast In June: When will the rains (Gujarat monsoon) come in Gujarat, we are eagerly waiting. In between this, forecaster Ambalal Patel (weather analyst Ambalal Patel) has predicted. According to his forecast, the number of cyclones will increase in the state by June 4. Wind speed is likely to be up to 30 km with dust storm in Ahmedabad, Central Gujarat, North Saurashtra, Banaskantha area. Thunderstorms are likely in Rohini nakshatra in some parts of the state till June 6.
Monsoon in Kerala is likely to advance in the next 3 days. Pre-monsoon activity will begin in south Maharashtra and Mumbai by June 7 and monsoon will begin by June 10. Monsoon is likely to reach parts of South Gujarat and South Saurashtra by June 15. Thunderstorms are likely to occur in the state from June 7 to 15. Light pressure is likely to develop over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal on June 8. Between June 18 and 20, there is a possibility of heavy rain in Mumbai, Maharashtra. Monsoon rains with gusty winds and lightning are likely to prevail in the state this year.
The weather department has predicted that the weather will remain dry for the next seven days. Wind will blow in the state for two days. There is a wind alert for Kutch, Patan and Banaskantha. Wind will blow at a speed of 25-30 km. The highest temperature of 42.8 degree was recorded in Ahmedabad. Westerly winds will blow from South West. Monsoon has settled in the North Eastern regions of Kerala. Then monsoon will set in Gujarat around June 15. Due to the forecast of the Meteorological Department, the sea of Dumas has been closed. The sea has been closed for tourists. Heavy police presence has been arranged. Lorries and rides on the sea have also been removed. Fishermen are requested not to plow the sea.
What the Meteorological Department said
- 2024 West – South Monsoon Seasonal (June – September) Above normal rainfall is likely across the country. Seasonal rainfall across the country can be 106% with a model error of -+5%. The long-term average of seasonal rainfall across the country for the period 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm.
- A moderate El Niño condition currently prevails over the equatorial Pacific. Recently the MMCFS as well as other climate models show the fire. The Al Niña condition may weaken further in the early part of the monsoon season followed by the development of a La Nina condition in the second part of the monsoon season.
- At present, a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition prevails in the Indian Ocean. And recent climate model predictions indicate that a positive Indian Ocean dipole condition is likely to prevail during the south-west monsoon season.
- Northern Hemisphere snow cover was below normal during the past three months. In the Northern Hemisphere as well as in Eurasia, winter and spring snowfalls are generally inversely related to the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
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